Asset management, investment management, risk management, Stamford, CT
In the financial markets, liquidity often has a much greater influence on prices than other variables.
For example, liquidity was a major reason why the S&P 500 gained 9.5% in 2016 although earnings per share rose by less than 6 percent, and why the S&P 500 fell 6.2% in 2018 despite earnings per share rising 21.7 percent.
The waterfall decline in March as a result of the COVID-19 and subsequent shelter-in-place orders was offset to some degree in April by the colossal support from the Federal Reserve and a series of Congressional relief programs totaling trillions of dollars. The S&P 500 index rallied 12.6 percent in April.
It was not without pain, however, as the price of a barrel of oil in the futures market traded at minus $38 for the first time in history as the collapse in demand caused storage facilities to operate near capacity.
As a reminder, the unprecedented government-mandated shutdowns in many states were due to virus models that estimated as many as 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. alone. Therefore, in order to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, according to the experts, drastic measures were needed. The goal was to “flatten the curve,” which has caused devastating collateral damage to the economy and untold personal and financial hardships.
In light of the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) situation, we hope that you and your families are well and are staying safe. Given the unprecedented nature of recent events and the shock that the virus has had on the economy, markets, and peoples’ lives, March 2020 will not soon be forgotten as the coronavirus wreaked havoc on the healthcare system, the economy, and the markets.
Given the devastating impact of COVID-19, we want to provide some context that we believe is critical to understand where we go from here.
The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health crisis that has also become a global economic crisis. It was announced on Thursday (3/26) that a record 3.28 million workers applied for unemployment benefits last week. The number of Americans filing for claims was nearly five times the previous record high.
The economic damage for the next 1-2 quarters, minimally, will be great especially for the leisure, travel and energy industries. How much further beyond that and how quickly the economy will recover will be a function of whether the unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy that has been provided will limit the damage done to a temporary event or is the damage permanent.
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Historically, epidemics like SARS, Ebola, Swine Flu, … (see list below) have had short-term impacts on the economy and stock market. Obviously, not all viruses are the same and no one knows the total impact yet of the coronavirus. There is no doubt that the coronavirus will minimally impact GDP and corporate earnings for the current quarter. Also, as we wrote on February 5th, “While the liquidity backdrop is favorable and the economy is growing, investors should brace for more volatility due to these ongoing developments and the proliferation of trading algorithms, which can cause wide swings in prices.” We have seen this daily over the past several days, and expect it to continue in the near term.
While the volatility has been massive, it also presents opportunity. At a minimum we expect a healthy bounce. When stocks trading below their 50-day moving average fall below 15 percent, it has generally been a good opportunity for additional commitments. As of Friday February 28th, that reading was 3.1 percent. Moreover, Chairman Powell recently reiterated that the Fed will use tools aggressively if they are needed.
While volatility is likely to remain high, so are the opportunities. That said, financial markets rely on confidence, and when confidence erodes accidents can happen. For that reason, it is critical that all politicians work together to focus on a solution for all rather than score political points.
U.S. financial markets began 2020 with the continued momentum seen late in 2019 on the easing of trade tensions, steady economic growth, and an accommodative monetary policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 29,000 and the S&P 500 closed above 3300 for the first time in history. The markets were able to shrug off concerns about rising geopolitical tensions with Iran and the impeachment trial in the Senate until fears about the coronavirus started to escalate.
U.S. equity markets declined by roughly 3 percent in the last six days of January as the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a global health emergency. Adding to those concerns is the lack of transparency about the origins of the virus and the general distrust of government institutions.
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The ISM Manufacturing Composite Index is a subcomponent in the Economic Cycle indicator in TJT’s proprietary InVEST Risk Model®.
The ISM Manufacturing Composite Index increased to 50.9 in January from 47.8 in December. It was the first expansionary reading above 50 since July 2019 for US manufacturing that has been contracting for five straight months.
Readings above 50 in the ISM manufacturing index signal month- to-month growth for U.S. manufacturing as a whole, while those below 50 indicate monthly contraction. For the economy as a whole, historically readings above 60 signal national GDP growth of 5 percent, while those below 43 signal GDP contraction.
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The 2019 year began with the ongoing partial government shutdown, the Robert Mueller investigation into election interference, the continuation of the trade war with China, and a Federal Reserve that rattled markets by raising interest rates four times and stated the reduction of their balance sheet was on “automatic pilot.”
As the 2019 year came to a close, the Mueller Report turned out to be a non-event, a “Phase 1” trade agreement with China was announced, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times and began to increase the size of their balance sheet again, and the S&P 500 index rallied by more than 28 percent.
The political drama in Washington continued, however, with the House of Representatives voting to impeach President Trump primarily along party lines, yet the articles of impeachment have not been sent to the Senate at this time. The 2020 New Year began with rising geopolitical tensions as a result of a deadly drone strike on an Iranian general.
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