As we close the chapter on calendar year 2020, it is one that will not soon be forgotten.  2020 was unprecedented in so many ways due to the global pandemic that will likely impact the way we work, learn, socialize, and entertain for quite some time. 

The year began with President Trump ordering a drone strike on an Iranian security commander, which was then followed by the onslaught of COVID-19, government-mandated shutdowns, a recession, market turmoil, unprecedented monetary and fiscal responses, a recovery, an election, new vaccines, and an S&P 500 index that gained 16.25 percent for the year. 

At one point during the year oil futures traded in negative territory, and the yield on the 10-year U.S Treasury Note fell from 1.92 percent at the beginning of 2020 to a low of 0.52 percent in August before ending the year at 0.93 percent.

Drastic times called for drastic measures, and the White House, Congress, and the Federal Reserve stepped up in ways never before seen.  And given the ongoing uncertainty regarding the so-called second wave of COVID, they are not done.  President Trump signed a $900 billion COVID-relief package, which included funding the government through September 2021.

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Following a 5.6 percent decline in the last week of October, the S&P 500 index rallied by an impressive 10.75 percent in November as some “worst case scenarios” regarding the election did not materialize. For example, fears of a contested presidential election reportedly caused some cities to board up windows as concerns about possible riots mounted. Given how contentious the atmosphere was heading into the election, a number of investors raised cash or “hedged” portfolios. Clearly, some of those hedges have been unwound over the past few weeks.

Some of the biggest rallies were seen in laggards such as energy and financial sectors.

In addition to the election, there were also worries about the rise in the number of COVID-19 cases as well as further restrictions on activity by some states. Moreover, Congress and the White House could not agree on the next round of coronavirus stimulus.

Adding to the post-election rally was positive COVID-vaccine news from Pfizer (BioNTech) and Moderna citing efficacy rates above 90 percent. While it will take several quarters to ramp production of the vaccines, if approved, investors are looking ahead to a better 2021.

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The S&P 500 index fell 2.7 percent in October on mounting tensions around the election outcome, a rise in the number of COVID-19 cases, and a complete stall in the next round of Congressional stimulus (CARES Act II).  Clearly, politics is front and center, and likely will be until a clear winner emerges.

Interest rates on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note rose from 0.69 percent at the end of September to 0.88 on October 30, 2020.  Meanwhile, the price of a barrel of oil (West Texas Intermediate) fell from over $40 to about $35 in a month due to the continued decline in demand.

The initial CARES Act provided much needed support to households and businesses as a result of forced shutdowns, which included expanded unemployment insurance benefits.  The enhanced federal unemployment payment of $600 a week ended on July 31, 2020, although some state benefits extend until year-end.

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The S&P 500 index fell 3.9 percent in September and experienced the first ten percent correction – from the month’s intraday high to the intraday low – since the rally began in late March. Despite the decline, the S&P 500 gained 8.4 percent in the third quarter as economic momentum picked up, the Federal Reserve flooded the markets with liquidity, and the CARES Act (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act) provided much needed stimulus.

However, the markets fell under pressure due to a host of issues including the slow progress on the second round of COVID relief, the looming presidential election, the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the expected political battle over filling her seat, and fear of a second wave of coronavirus shutdowns.

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The S&P 500 index closed at 3500.31 as of August 31, 2020, up 7 percent in the month of August and up 8.3 percent year-to-date. The yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury Note was 0.72 percent, an ounce of gold closed out the month at $1973.90 after topping $2000, and a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil was $42.82. The U.S. dollar fell a little over 1 percent in August and is at the lowest level since April 2018 relative to a basket of foreign currencies.

Despite the ongoing challenges related to COVID-19, the new high in the S&P 500 is due to the unprecedented monetary and fiscal support by the Federal Reserve and Congress. Moreover, the Federal Reserve literally changed its monetary policy rules last week, which will have a meaningful impact on markets for years to come.

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The S&P 500 index gained 5.5 percent in July, adding to the second quarter rebound of 19.9 percent despite the fact that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell at an annualized pace of 32.9 percent in the second quarter. This stark contrast between the underlying economy and the markets is due to the seismic shift in Federal Reserve policy.

The Eurozone economy contracted by 12.1 percent in the second quarter, which ultimately led to the European Union approving a $2.06 trillion spending package. The German economy, Europe’s largest, fell by more than ten percent in the second quarter.

China’s GDP reportedly rose at an unlikely 3.2 percent from a year ago following the 6.8 percent decline year-over-year in the first quarter. We say “reportedly” as a good portion of the global economy was shut down in the second quarter, making that number suspect.

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If you want to improve your returns in the stock market, we believe you should pay close attention to what the Federal Reserve is doing because liquidity moves markets. Doing so will do wonders for your wealth.

Unfortunately, when it comes to the stock market, a majority of investors underperform in good markets and challenging ones because they fail to focus on the most important factors.

Since the financial crisis a decade ago, the U.S. stock market has gone down, but it has yet to stay down. A major reason for that is the Federal Reserve and the supply of money.

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The S&P 500 index rebounded from a 5.9 percent drop mid-month to finish up 1.8 percent in June, continuing the rebound due to the massive injection of liquidity from the Federal Reserve since March.  The rising tide of liquidity has levitated everything from oil and gold to penny stocks and even bankrupt companies.  

The price of gold approached the $1800 level, which it has not reached since 2011.  In May, Hertz rental car company filed for bankruptcy, hurt by ride-sharing businesses such as Uber and Lyft, as well as the virtual shutdown of business travel due to COVID-19.  Nevertheless, demand for the bankrupt company’s shares was so strong, a federal bankruptcy judge approved the sale of up to $500 million worth of stock before the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) weighed in. 

Clearly, these are not normal times.

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Optimism towards the economic re-opening and a pledge by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell “to use our tools to the fullest until the crisis has passed” helped the S&P 500 index gain 4.5 percent in May.  Oil prices bounced back from severely oversold levels and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note fell to 0.65 percent.

However, that optimism was replaced by shock and dismay over the senseless death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, which sparked protests and riots in a number of large U.S. cities.  While the friction regarding the re-opening of the economy was likely to be anything but business as usual due to many new restrictions, numerous mass protests, curfews, and general unrest are likely to create additional challenges.

These are clearly unprecedented times.

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