InVEST Risk Model®

Our proprietary InVEST Risk Model® is our highly effective and valuable tool that has made a huge difference in our clients’ lives. It focuses on the important things that influence prices in an effort to make money when conditions are positive, and to protect the money we have made when conditions turn negative.

InVEST Risk Model ®

InVEST is an acronym for the 5 key indicators that really matter and signal the true direction and health of the market.

Interest Rates
Economic Cycle
Technical Factors

TJT Capital Group’s InVEST Risk Model ®

Investing is trickier than most people realize. Even so‐called experts get it very, very wrong from time to time. If you need evidence, here are some examples that prove just how far off investors can be:

  • Did you know that the best consecutive four‐year performance in the history of the U.S. stock market occurred during the Great Depression? It’s true: the worst economic crisis in American history actually produced the best four-year return on record.
  • By the same token, what many investors believed was the best time to invest – judging by the record amount of money that went into the U.S stock market (mostly the NASDAQ) in the first quarter of 2000 – resulted in a roughly 78 percent decline over the next two years.
  • The rout caused by the so‐called “Great Recession,” from its peak in October 2007 through to March 2009, resulted in a devastating 56.7 percent loss in the S&P 500 index. What many bankers, regulators, academics and investors got so profoundly wrong was deeming so‐called “AAA‐Rated” pools of sub‐prime mortgage bonds to be as safe and liquid as U.S. Treasury securities. As a result, those bonds required no reserves against them, based on accepted accounting rules. When the bonds began to default, there was no financial cushion – and the global markets and economy seized up as a result.
  • More recently, between 2012 and 2014, despite a litany of potentially negative issues – including a government shutdown, elections, Federal Reserve concerns, and the elimination of tax cuts, among others – the cumulative return for the S&P 500 index was more than 74 percent.

The point here is that investing is not easy. Bull markets and bear markets are part of investing reality. Add to that the fact that investors are often influenced by the crowd (aka, market predictions, biases, opinions, narratives and consensus), and you begin to understand why so many struggle.

TJT Capital Group’s proprietary InVEST Risk Model ® is a unique and trusted tool that guides us to help clients meet their financial goals by simplifying the complex, filtering the noise, and increasing the probability of success. Specifically, we have researched and documented five indicators that really matter when it comes to determining the health of the markets, and we use these as the basis for managing all portfolios.


Read the entire White Paper


Put our InVEST Risk Model ® to work for you.

TJT Capital Group helps you participate in markets when conditions are right and looks to protect your money when those conditions change. With experience in building a billion dollar business for a large institution, we bring expertise to managing portfolios to help our clients meet their goals.

A unique perspective on the health of markets.

Your circumstances are personal, so your investment strategy should be as well.

We think differently because conventional wisdom is often proved wrong.

InVEST Risk Model ® - The TJT Difference

Investing is not easy. Too often people invest looking through the rear-view mirror, or based upon current headlines, preconceived notions or predictions.

Successful investing involves knowing what moves markets.

You need to have an edge and separate the signals from the noise. TJT’s management team has a combined 90+ years of investment and client service experience. Let us put our expertise to work for you.

  • A study of a 25-year period found that Fortune Magazine’s least admired companies outperformed the most admired companies. Higher admiration was followed by lower returns.
  • The best consecutive 4-year stock market return was during the Great Depression.
  • Over the past 60 years, stocks have had better returns when the unemployment rate is above 8% than when unemployment is 4%.