The longest government shutdown in U.S. history ended after 43 days, with little tangible progress to show for it. Congress essentially kicked the can down the road, as key appropriations bills must still be resolved by January 30, 2026. During the shutdown, volatility increased across U.S. equity markets: the S&P 500 Index fell roughly 4.6 percent before staging a late-month rally that left it up about eight points at 6,849. A mix of disappointing earnings guidance, concerns over the massive borrowing required to finance artificial intelligence (AI) data-center buildouts, and a comment from OpenAI’s Chief Financial Officer referencing potential government “backstops” contributed to sharp swings in stock prices.
Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined to 4.02 percent from 4.11 percent at the end of October. Oil prices slid from nearly $62 a barrel to $58.55, while gold surged to $4,217 an ounce.
TJT Capital Group’s InVEST Risk Model ® has helped our clients participate in bull markets and protect capital from the devastation of bear markets by focusing on 5 indicators that really matter when it comes to determining the health and direction of markets. The following is the most recent update.